Corona virus tests – South Africa versus population


Data presented by the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) reveals how many Covid-19 tests have been conducted in South Africa across all provinces to date – and what proportion have come out positive.   Across the country, the NHLS’s data (to 28 May) shows that over 680,000 tests have been processed in the country.    Counter to claims made about the Western Cape having the highest number of tests done, the NHLS showed that Gauteng has so far conducted the most tests, accounting for approximately a third of the total.


Population in South Africa now at 58.8 million

In a projection, the size and composition of the future population of an entity such as South Africa is estimated.   The mid-year population estimates produced by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) uses the cohort-component method for population estimation. In the cohort-component method, a base population is estimated that is consistent with known demographic characteristics of the country. The cohort base population is projected into the future according to the projected components of change.

A cohort-component projection requires a base population distributed by age and sex. Levels of mortality,  fertility and migration are estimated for the base year and projected for future years. The cohort base population is projected into the future according to the projected components of population change. The DemProj module of Spectrum is used to produce a single-year projection, thus the TFR and the life expectancy at birth must be provided in the same format i.e. single years. .. // ..

Click to access P03022019.pdf


This is followed by the Western Cape with 23% and Kwa-Zulu Natal, with 17%.    While accounting for 23% of overall tests, the Western Cape has two thirds of all coronavirus cases in the country. South Africa’s positive test rate averages 4.6% – but the Western Cape’s positive rate is almost three times higher at 12.7%.

According to chair of the coronvirus advisory panel, professor Abdool Salim Karim, the data shows how much of an outlier the Western Cape is in the overall infection trend in the country.

More specifically, he noted that the proportion of positive cases has remained stable across all other provinces as testing increases (sitting in a range of 1.1% to 4.6% week on week) – but in the Western Cape, the proportion has climbed as more tests have been conducted.

Another outlying indicator is in how quickly the number of cases is doubling. Before lockdown, the time taken for cases to double in South Africa was two days.

During lockdown, this slowed to 15 days – and since easing to lockdown level 3, this has quickened to 12 days.

This same trend has been seen in all provinces except the Western Cape, he said, where days to doubling started at two days, jumped to 18, and now sits at nine days.

Karim said that the Western Cape serves as an early indication of what lies ahead for other provinces in the country.

He said that the province was able to identify hotspot areas, and determine the cause of the rapid spreading – and from there has been able to develop plans to intervene.

“The province is now dealing with the spread on a very localised level,” Karim said. This, he added, is the next phase of the country’s response plan – finding the hotspots and dealing with them in a very directed way.

“It’s about finding the flames before they turn into a raging fire,” he said.



Daar is twee tabelle – een is van die statistieke per provinsie waar die aantal toetse gedoen is en die ander toon slegs die beraamde populasie in SA aan.

Daar word ook immigrante / onwettiges getoets en nie net burgers van die land nie.

Tog word berekeninge gedoen op die huidige beraamde bevolking, wat nie die immigrante of onwettiges hierby insluit nie.

Dieselfde gevolgtrekking gaan vir lande oorsee, soos in die EU, Amerika Australië waar immigrante ook getoets was, en tog word berekenings vermoedelik soos in Suid-Afrika gedoen op slegs die beraamde getal burgers.

Dus hoe betroubaar is dit as heelwat uit Afrika lande afkomstig is.

Daar was nog nooit enige sensus opnames in Suid-Afrika gedoen en kontrole beheer op ons landsgrense bestaan nie regtig nie, behalwe waar daar ‘n bemande “brug” of “hek” is.  Die res loop deur sonder papiere of heenkome op soek na werk of wat ookal die geval mag wees.

Dus word al die vrugte en groente in een mandjie gegooi waar daar piesangs, appels, wortels en beet geplaas is as een.   Watter persentasie van die getalle, behoort aan die “immigrante/onwettiges” en van watter lande is hul regtig afkomstig?



Regarding the virus –  millions of immigrants and illegals are not in included in the following table.   There were no census done on them since their arrival in South Africa.

But some of them were also tested and included in the above table (all cases in SA), but at the end the people that control those statistics, work it out under only the estimated population and not separate from each other.

There are millions of immigrants in South Africa came in after 1994.

The big question is, even overseas countries, they do testing on their immigrants but how many of their amounts were citizens and immigrants / illegals at the end.

How many immigrants / illegals for example in South Africa, EU countries, America, or Australia came from any or which African country, but was positive tested.

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